Wednesday, April 29, 2009

PRMIA - Blog- "Functionalism" in art, design, architecture &" risk"

PRMIA - Publication Weblogs

This blog post from Odette Gregory that I read on the PRMIA site caught my attention with the words "risk" & "functionalism". I am intrigued by the interpretation of functionalism in art, architecture & design as it relates to the notions of functions and functional operators as defined in mathematics and used in the formulation of BICs.
See:

Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu


PS: She just kindly sent me a note, which just brought back these toughts to my mind.

Monday, April 27, 2009

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Let central banks direct the supply of credit

FT.com / Comment / Opinion - Let central banks direct the supply of credit

Interesting policy suggestion that I am not sure will be so easy to implement. The question is how do you set capital ratio levels to counteract foreign capitals inflows? What formula do you use?

if too much capital is set aside, it will go to buy government bonds, thereby pressuring down interest rates against central banks goals,...

The real pb in my view was the inability to control long term rates.

Again, a BICs framework on interest rate is to me the most efficient mechanism of controlling long term rates, thereby controlling mortgage demand/supply

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Good Government and Animal Spirits - WSJ.com

Good Government and Animal Spirits - WSJ.com

Comment


See:
Laws of Nature 3 - BICs




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kw1O_6mGsXE

http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/kongtcheu-175778-LawsofNature3-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint/

http://www.authorstream.com/PresentLive/kongtcheu-175778-LawsofNature3-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint


Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu



Unity of Purpose




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70ciLLjpS4U


http://www.authorstream.com/PresentLive/kongtcheu-179123-UnityofPurpose2-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint


http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/kongtcheu-179123-UnityofPurpose2-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint/


Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu

Financial Reforms We Can All Agree On - WSJ.com

Financial Reforms We Can All Agree On - WSJ.com: "6) Avoid grade inflation in rating agencies' opinions. Lots of bad ideas are surfacing about how to accomplish that goal, one of which is to require that buyers, not sellers, pay for ratings. This would not improve the reliability of ratings. Regulated, buy-side investors (banks, pensions, mutual funds and insurance companies) pushed for ratings inflation of securitized debts to loosen restrictions on what they could buy. Giving these buyers more power would not discourage ratings inflation. Another bad idea gaining ground in Europe is to have regulators micromanage the ratings process, which would be destructive to the ratings' content.

There are better alternatives, one of which is to force ratings to be quantitative. Letter grades have no objective meaning that can be evaluated or penalized for inaccuracy. Numerical estimates of the probability of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD), in contrast, do have objective, measurable meanings.

The Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organizations (NRSROs) whose ratings are used by regulators should provide specific estimates of the PD and LGD for any rated instrument (they already calculate and publicly report the necessary statistics). Requiring these organizations to express ratings using numbers could alter the rating agencies' incentives dramatically. If they were penalized for systematically underestimating risk over a significant period of time -- say, with a six-month 'sit out' from having their ratings used for regulatory purposes -- they would have a strong self-interest in correctly estimating risk."

-------------------------------------

Comment


The issue is not so much alphabetical versus numerical as it is an issue of further granularity in rankings
See my book chapter VIII:

 




My recent output on proposals for reform:

Unity of Purpose




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70ciLLjpS4U


http://www.authorstream.com/PresentLive/kongtcheu-179123-UnityofPurpose2-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint


http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/kongtcheu-179123-UnityofPurpose2-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint/


Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu


Too Big to Fail





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzO6_CusfL8



http://www.authorstream.com/Presentation/kongtcheu-179114-TooBigtoFail-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint/

http://www.authorstream.com/PresentLive/kongtcheu-179114-TooBigtoFail-Business-Finance-ppt-powerpoint



Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Why Capital Structure Matters - WSJ.com

Why Capital Structure Matters - WSJ.com: "History isn't a sine wave of endlessly repeated patterns. It's more like a helix that brings similar events around in a different orbit. But what we see today does echo the 1970s, as companies use the capital markets to push out debt maturities and pay off loans. That gives them breathing room and provides hope that history will repeat itself in a strong economic recovery.

It doesn't matter whether a company is big or small. Capital structure matters. It always has and always will."

Very thoughtful piece.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

FT.com / Video & Audio / Interactive graphics - How the repo market works

FT.com / Video & Audio / Interactive graphics - How the repo market works
Comments:

1) Repos as described here are a combination of an asset sale coupled with a forward contract on the underlying. Forward being a simple form of BICs...

2) The fed should have stepped in and done a more generalized intervention as clearing Counterparty in September immediately after Lehman failed, and not just in the repo market, but almost for all OTC activities.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Op-Ed Columnist - Green Shoots and Glimmers - NYTimes.com

Op-Ed Columnist - Green Shoots and Glimmers - NYTimes.com: "the White House spokesman, Robert Gibbs, says that “you will see in a systematic and coordinated way the transparency of determining and showing to all involved some of the results of these stress tests.” No, I don’t know what that means, either."

In my college days in France, we used to call this "Grand Pipeau"!

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Laws of Nature 3 BICs

I just released on youtube and on the blog mainpage this short encapsulation of BICs to the tune of Beethoven's "allegro con brio"

Monday, April 13, 2009

M. Flaubert, c'est moi !, par Orhan Pamuk - Le Monde.fr

M. Flaubert, c'est moi !, par Orhan Pamuk - Le Monde.fr

Reading this French op-ed piece in Le Monde by Orphan Pamuk made me muse:

Flaubert & Philibert,

"Style indirect libre" & BICs,

Same ideal!

Flaubert, c'est moi!


PS: My first name "Phil" is short for "Philibert"

Sunday, April 12, 2009

FT.com / Weekend / Reportage - Is a high IQ a burden as much as a blessing?

FT.com / Weekend / Reportage - Is a high IQ a burden as much as a blessing?: "“Monty Hall dilemma"

I just wanted to make a note on this article which deals with the “Monty Hall dilemma" which is a reformulation of Bertrand's box paradox described by Joseph Bertrand in his "Calcul des probabilités", published in 1889!

On p. 248 of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance, the author Perry Mehrling narrates as if the "let's make a deal" quiz is an ingenious creation of Fischer Black that goes to show how smart he was. He does not outright says it, but phrases the context in a way that makes it appear - if you are not familiar with the origins of the puzzle, that it was Black's invention.

As the Black Scholes edifice crumbles furthermore in this crisis, this illustrates once more, what a fraud all of it was.

Remember that when someone solves it correctly, it probably just means they read or heard it somewhere else before and is no indication of the power of their intellect. I am sure Vos Savant had seen it before.

It relates to BICs as the solution of the puzzles requires some aptitude to understand conditional probabilities which are just a trivial case of BICs.

One of the confusing aspects of the problem statement is:

“But if thought corrupts language,
language can also corrupt thought.”
George Orwell

Friday, April 10, 2009