FT.com / Columnists / GillianTett - Why public private plan has bankers squirming
Indeed it is unclear that participation is such a free lunch.
Friday, May 22, 2009
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Most-Popular Lists Breed More Popularity - WSJ.com
Most-Popular Lists Breed More Popularity - WSJ.com
This article documents the self reinforcing phenomenon of popularity lists. The more an article is listed as popular, the more it becomes popular. It is the same dynamic that leads to the formation of too big to fail entities as described in the presentation below.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu
Awereness of this bias should lead to antitrust type policies to correct it where it affects decision making with potentially dangerous consequences such as in the insurance industry.
This article documents the self reinforcing phenomenon of popularity lists. The more an article is listed as popular, the more it becomes popular. It is the same dynamic that leads to the formation of too big to fail entities as described in the presentation below.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu
Awereness of this bias should lead to antitrust type policies to correct it where it affects decision making with potentially dangerous consequences such as in the insurance industry.
Blogspot Block in China
Since last Saturday all blogs on blogspot.com seem to have been blocked here in China. I now have to access my blog through very convoluted and annoying means which will reduce my posts for a while.
Youtube has been blocked for a while also now.
See also:
http://markschinablog.blogspot.com/2009/05/blogspot-blocked.html
Youtube has been blocked for a while also now.
See also:
http://markschinablog.blogspot.com/2009/05/blogspot-blocked.html
Friday, May 15, 2009
China Is Ahead of the Curve on Oversight - WSJ.com
China Is Ahead of the Curve on Oversight - WSJ.com
Interesting article, which fits well with my piece on "unity of purpose".
Note that these are merely linear derivatives (bonds, forwards, swaps) currently trading in China.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu
Interesting article, which fits well with my piece on "unity of purpose".
Note that these are merely linear derivatives (bonds, forwards, swaps) currently trading in China.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu
Monday, May 11, 2009
Op-Ed Contributor - The G.D.P. Question - NYTimes.com
Op-Ed Contributor - The G.D.P. Question - NYTimes.com
I liked the data rich nature of this piece on comparative government spending as a share of GDP.
His point taken, I wonder why he did not discuss the possibility of government continuing to to provide the same level of service while reducing the cost of these services as is currently being suggested for shifting the balance of cost towards preventive health care that will substantially reduce curative costs down the road. Krugman's piece today seems to show that is where the gov't is going.
Where are the statistics showing that European countries spend less on healthcare for better results as as measured by life expectancy? That France has the best health care system of OECD countries?
However one central point that the data provided shows but that the author did not notice is how Government share of GDP is correlated with population density. And this to me is one more illustration of my little holistic theorem applied here:
"The more people participate in a system, the more it makes sense for a central authority to mediate their relationships/communication; No matter what the cost for setting up this central authority, as the number of participants increase, this cost is dwarfed by the benefits of centralized mediation on a linear vs. quadratic basis."
See my proposal for centralized clearing of derivatives that underscores this analysis.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu
I liked the data rich nature of this piece on comparative government spending as a share of GDP.
His point taken, I wonder why he did not discuss the possibility of government continuing to to provide the same level of service while reducing the cost of these services as is currently being suggested for shifting the balance of cost towards preventive health care that will substantially reduce curative costs down the road. Krugman's piece today seems to show that is where the gov't is going.
Where are the statistics showing that European countries spend less on healthcare for better results as as measured by life expectancy? That France has the best health care system of OECD countries?
However one central point that the data provided shows but that the author did not notice is how Government share of GDP is correlated with population density. And this to me is one more illustration of my little holistic theorem applied here:
"The more people participate in a system, the more it makes sense for a central authority to mediate their relationships/communication; No matter what the cost for setting up this central authority, as the number of participants increase, this cost is dwarfed by the benefits of centralized mediation on a linear vs. quadratic basis."
See my proposal for centralized clearing of derivatives that underscores this analysis.
Uploaded on authorSTREAM by kongtcheu
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Geithner Weighs Pace of Job Losses, Defends Stress Tests | Online NewsHour | May 8, 2009 | PBS
Geithner Weighs Pace of Job Losses, Defends Stress Tests | Online NewsHour | May 8, 2009 | PBS
When I watch Mr Geithner talk, he is very eloquent about the intent of the policies. This piece gave me an opportunity to learn a lot. It seems to me however that he is not broadening enough the framework within which to effect successful outcomes.
While nationalization as repeatedly advocated by krugman may not perhaps be the best way of handling things, I wonder why there has not been that much on the table about the govt lending directly to consumers and small biz. I wonder why govt is not thinking about market making of troubled assets on the lines I have proposed.
I know they are attempting to do that with student loans and Fannie & Freddy's size of the mortgage market have substantially grown. In my view the scale and scope of these should be more direct and swift.
Such a govt competing force would then force institutional banking to lend under reasonable terms or perish as they should. Almost like single payer being discussed for health care...
Another thing that is part of the common wisdom now is that lack of savings is one of the things at the root of this crisis. To me this is narrow minded. The pb is the failure of asset valuation methods. If you have 100 in assets and 90 in liabilities, it should not be a pb. the pb is when you think your assets are worth 100 when they are actually worth 80. So to me US low savings rate is not really the pb. Mr. Geithner's explanation of the transition out of recession does not challenge that idea...
BICs provide an approach to more coherent and credible assets valuations.
When I watch Mr Geithner talk, he is very eloquent about the intent of the policies. This piece gave me an opportunity to learn a lot. It seems to me however that he is not broadening enough the framework within which to effect successful outcomes.
While nationalization as repeatedly advocated by krugman may not perhaps be the best way of handling things, I wonder why there has not been that much on the table about the govt lending directly to consumers and small biz. I wonder why govt is not thinking about market making of troubled assets on the lines I have proposed.
I know they are attempting to do that with student loans and Fannie & Freddy's size of the mortgage market have substantially grown. In my view the scale and scope of these should be more direct and swift.
Such a govt competing force would then force institutional banking to lend under reasonable terms or perish as they should. Almost like single payer being discussed for health care...
Another thing that is part of the common wisdom now is that lack of savings is one of the things at the root of this crisis. To me this is narrow minded. The pb is the failure of asset valuation methods. If you have 100 in assets and 90 in liabilities, it should not be a pb. the pb is when you think your assets are worth 100 when they are actually worth 80. So to me US low savings rate is not really the pb. Mr. Geithner's explanation of the transition out of recession does not challenge that idea...
BICs provide an approach to more coherent and credible assets valuations.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Genesis of the Debt Disaster
FT.com / Weekend / Reportage - Genesis of the debt disaster:
Interesting piece. It refocused in my mind the question of how the different probabilistic concepts we come to see as intelligible have illusory meanings.
What is Correlation? What is Volatility?
Indeed, one of the strengths of BICs is to provide physical definiteness to these sometimes misleading concepts for reliable risk management.
Interesting piece. It refocused in my mind the question of how the different probabilistic concepts we come to see as intelligible have illusory meanings.
What is Correlation? What is Volatility?
Indeed, one of the strengths of BICs is to provide physical definiteness to these sometimes misleading concepts for reliable risk management.
Friday, May 1, 2009
Op-Ed Columnist - Genius - The Modern View - NYTimes.com
Op-Ed Columnist - Genius - The Modern View - NYTimes.com
I really like this type of anthropo-socio-cultural subjects David Brooks often covers.
This piece reporting recent research on genius confirms many of the things I have always suspected. The development of what is referred to here as "Genius" is simply the result of implementing the predictable steps that help make things appreciably better:
- To do things well you must spend the initial time to refine or break down a whole block into smaller units that are mastered with precision
-Once this process is mastered, executing other more creative sequences can be performed with superb flawlessness.
With respect to BICs,
-the effort is yet again to break a complex product into elementary units
-Once this process is mastered, handling other more complex or creative structures can be performed with superb flawlessness.
I wish Brooks would have also dealt or would deal in another piece with the forms of genius that society fails to appreciate in due time or that get altogether lost, those ultimate artists of Flaubertian imagery; the type of structural societal changes that may help unhindered expression or enjoyment of the various forms of genius. In the end a genius that is not duly recognized is a loss to society.
As Schopenhauer said: "talent hits a target no one else can hit, genius hits a target no one else can see". Using this lexicon, we'd say the article is more a discussion on talent rather then genius.
I really like this type of anthropo-socio-cultural subjects David Brooks often covers.
This piece reporting recent research on genius confirms many of the things I have always suspected. The development of what is referred to here as "Genius" is simply the result of implementing the predictable steps that help make things appreciably better:
- To do things well you must spend the initial time to refine or break down a whole block into smaller units that are mastered with precision
-Once this process is mastered, executing other more creative sequences can be performed with superb flawlessness.
With respect to BICs,
-the effort is yet again to break a complex product into elementary units
-Once this process is mastered, handling other more complex or creative structures can be performed with superb flawlessness.
I wish Brooks would have also dealt or would deal in another piece with the forms of genius that society fails to appreciate in due time or that get altogether lost, those ultimate artists of Flaubertian imagery; the type of structural societal changes that may help unhindered expression or enjoyment of the various forms of genius. In the end a genius that is not duly recognized is a loss to society.
As Schopenhauer said: "talent hits a target no one else can hit, genius hits a target no one else can see". Using this lexicon, we'd say the article is more a discussion on talent rather then genius.
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